October 2024 offers a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces and sector-specific trends, underscoring critical opportunities and risks for investors. U.S. equities continue to rise on AI-led momentum and productivity gains, but the upcoming presidential election introduces potential volatility. Japanese equities are poised for sustained growth, driven by corporate reforms and a virtuous wage-price cycle. European equities, however, remain sluggish, with minor upside from Chinese stimulus and U.S. rate cuts.
The fixed income market reflects divergent dynamics between developed and emerging markets. In the U.S., bond yields rise despite an easing policy trajectory, driven by lingering inflation and recalibrated neutral rates. Conversely, Eurozone bonds anticipate deeper cuts as economic conditions weaken further. Emerging markets present a favorable narrative, with India leveraging economic strength and index inclusion, while China’s fiscal stimulus temporarily bolsters investor sentiment.
Gold continues to shine, propelled by geopolitical tensions and monetary easing. Central bank demand and currency de-dollarization efforts sustain its bullish outlook. However, its performance may be tempered by resilient equity markets, as investor confidence in corporate earnings remains strong.
Regionally, Cambodia is a standout, with its SEZ developments driving investments in logistics and data centers. Tourism recovery, although gradual, shows promise in the budget lodging segment. Challenges persist in the garment sector, where labor costs and softening global demand weigh on recovery.
